India's most frightening epidemic, which isn't just robbing people of their lives but also their families of livelihood - is expected to get worse over the next decade, especially for women.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research's (ICMR) projection in a landmark Trends in Cancer report, yet to be made public, the country will see a 21 per cent overall increase - over 1.06 lakh additional cases of cancer every year in women by 2020, as against 79,000 new cases of cancer in men during the same period.

This landmark analysis, based on the pattern of cancer incidence between 1982-2005 (24 years) in India, has made some startling revelations. Cases of leukaemia or blood cancer will increase by almost 77 per cent in women by 2020, followed by cancer of the colon (69 per cent) and liver (61 per cent). However, in sheer numbers, the main culprit in the next 10 years will be breast cancer.

While India is expected to see a 41 per cent increase in breast cancer cases by 2020, in numbers it would mean almost 36,000 additional women falling victim to it. In comparison, cervical cancer, which has been Indian women's real curse will show a dip in actual number of cases. Cancer in other common body sites - uterus, ovary, gall bladder and stomach will see a 21 per cent increase. According to Dr Vinod Raina, head of medical oncology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), though leukaemia may see the maximum increase in incidence rates, in sheer numbers it is still uncommon. Breast cancer, on the other hand, will form the lion's share of new cancer cases in the next 10 years, which will be primarily due to India's ageing population.

Says Dr Raina, "Cancer is age-related . So, the longer women live, the more will be their chances of suffering from cancer." He goes on to add, "Colon cancer cases will increase due to a change in Indian dietary habits. High meat intake is known to cause colon cancer. That's why vegetarians usually don't suffer from it. The main culprits behind liver cancer, however, are Hepatitis B and C infections."

According to Dr Shyam Aggarwal, medical oncologist at Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, late marriages, delayed child bearing and giving birth to lesser number of children, besides ageing are leading to an increased risk of breast cancer. "Almost 70 per cent of these cases are dependent on the female hormone - oestrogen . Giving birth breaks the hormonal cycle that reduces the chances of breast cancer. The sooner a woman breaks the cycle of oestrogen formation with early pregnancy, the greater the chances of a reduction of cancer cells, which multiply under the influence of oestrogen."

Increased obesity too is a major risk factor. In India, nearly 6 crore women are believed to be overweight and studies have shown that about one out of 12 new cases of cancer is because of excess weight. Adds Dr Aggarwal, "Fat cells also produce oestrogen. A diet full of fat is also not helping matters." According to an elite international panel that analysed over 7,000 studies in the last 40 years, over 40 per cent of all cancers are a direct result of our diet, body structure and exercise habits.

The panel in its 521-page report - Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity and the Prevention of Cancer - prepared after five years of analysis , made crucial recommendations that people across the globe must follow to minimise their chances of getting cancer. However, Indians fared badly with regard to most of the recommendations . Studies revealed they consume just 130 gm of fruits and vegetables a day as against the recommended amount of 400 gm. While salt consumption shouldn't be more than 6 gm a day, Indians consume anywhere between 10-15 gm.

Consumption of red meat was found to have a direct link with cancer - with over 64 per cent of non-vegetarians in India consuming more than the recommended amount of under 500 gm a week. The same is the case with the consumption of soft drinks and fast food as well. Then, while more than 30 ml of alcohol a day is dangerous, binge drinking is on the rise here.

New mothers should ideally breastfeed their children for six months, but Indian mothers do so for just about two months, on average. So, only 51 per cent of the infants are breastfed for the first six months.

Treat these statistics as a wake-up call and start making small changes to your lifestyle to keep cancer at bay.

Cancer, a generic term for a group of more than 200 diseases that are expected to kill 84 million people between 2005 and 2015, 70% of whom will be in low and middle income countries

At any given time, there are 25 lakh cancer patients in India

It is the third biggest killer in the country, claiming 4 lakh lives every year

About 7-9 lakh new cancer cases are detected in India annually

Every hour, cancer kills at least 50 people in India, and 100 new cases are detected

Early detection is vital to fight cancer, especially of the breast, cervix, mouth, larynx, colon, rectum and skin

At present, in India, over 70% cases are detected at the terminal stage

The current oncologist-patient ratio is 0.98: 1 lakh cases

With regular screening, mosts cancers can be prevented

Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare